While the United States of America and many other countries around the world were busy with preventing the spread of Coronavirus and saving the patients affected with COVID-19, China had started efforts to make new friends by launching the Mask Diplomacy.
On one hand, China sought to rescue Afghans affected with COVID-19 through the 11.7 tons of Beijing’s medicine and healthcare kit aids; however, it has expedited its struggles to besiege Afghanistan and the region when it comes to trade and transit from another hand.
Without having an active role Since 2001, China has tried to come to an understanding with U.S. interventions against terrorism in Afghanistan as this approach has helped China’s national security to a large extent in form of eliminating anti-Beijing insurgents and terrorists; however, the Chinese coordinated stance literally does not mean China’s support for the U.S. long-term presence in the region, and thus, Beijing has asked Washington to withdraw from Afghanistan “responsibly”, and has assured it that Beijing does not wish to surrogate U.S. in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, China’s position and Chinese trade and transit projects in the region seem to make Afghanistan dependent on this country at the end of the day.
The prominent international security scholar John Mearsheimer believes that great powers are continuously seeking to become a hegemonic power in their own region and remove other rival powers in the region of their hegemony. Similar to U.S. control over the West, China remains vigorous to govern Asia; therefore, it strains to remove the U.S. from the region. Unlike the expectation of U.S. politicians, Chinese are not that much committed to principles in politics, and the sentiment of their nationalism is not less than that of Americans, in order to make them neglect their regional interests and to tolerate U.S. regional presence forever. Despite the fact that U.S., using its international influence and the power of its regional allies, has a bash to jettison China to a limit where for it to remove the aspiration of becoming a global power from its agenda, China, however, has circumscribed the U.S. regional allies through its economic and trade strategies so that they will not be able to get united against China.
China announced its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 to invest 40 to 100 Billion USD in 65 Asian, Middle Eastern, and African countries. As a result of the implementation of this project, a railway, an energy pipeline and a border coordination network will be established among the participating countries. At the outset, China left out Afghanistan from this project; but after the launch of the work on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the framework of BRI in Pakistan, Beijing became solicitous to have Afghanistan as a part of the One Belt One Road Initiative. Afghan government continues to discussions with China in the framework of Kabul-Beijing-Islamabad trilateral coordination meetings; however, none of the CPEC projects is yet to be practically started in Afghanistan.
At that time (2015), U.S. had labeled the One Belt One Road initiative as an attempt by China to expand its influence in the world, and thus, informed the participating countries against existing concerns and likely consequences once they join the initiative.
From 2012, Afghanistan has strained to free itself from the need for Pakistan’s transit route and to work on alternative means, so we can reference the Central Asian routes and the more recent Chabahar Port as successful examples of these efforts. For the purpose of prevention of Chinese economic-commercial influence in Afghanistan with help of Pakistan, U.S. had consent with previously mentioned programs of Afghanistan. Exemption of Chabahar Port from sanctions put on Iran, and lack of Washington’s unblemished opposition with 500 Million USD investment of India in the Chabahar are palpable examples in this arena.
China Perceives Opportunities in Afghanistan
China has made its political disagreements inconspicuous with several countries that, according to Beijing, do not seem solvable in short-term and promotion of them in current circumstances result in detriment for China. Training of Uyghur fighters in Pakistan and their settlement in Afghanistan is among them. In the meantime, China has reduced the probability of formation of a U.S.-led anti-Beijing coalition of regional countries through expanding its economic and trade interventions with U.S. allies, i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia and etc., and again, if such a coalition is established, these countries, then, shall pay the economic price.
Gwadar Port of Pakistan is the starting point of One Belt One Road initiative of China, and Islamabad ruminates the project as its economic prosperity. Moreover, Gwadar Port has a value of transit corridor for Chinese access to Middle East through water, because China has invested in some of commercial ports in Middle East and Saudi Arabia since 2013, and thus, Gwadar Port is the connectivity point with these ports. These projects are in United Arab Emirates’ Khalifa Port and Kizad Logistics Park, Egypt’s Port Said Port and Suez Canal Economic Zone, Oman’s Duqm Port and Industrial Park, and Saudi Arabia’s Jizan Port and The Jizan Economic zone. Nonetheless, the largest fear of Beijing is that the involvement of India in Chabahar Port will decrease the importance of Gwadar Port, and hence, it will create problems for connectivity of Middle East and Saudi Arabia with Beijing through existing ports.
In 2016, Kabul, Delhi, and Tehran signed a trilateral agreement on Chabahar Port, where India promised to invest 500 Million USD in the port, and since then, not only Indian goods are exported to Afghanistan via Chabahar, Afghanistan also exports its commercial goods worth one billion USD to India through the port in return annually. Four years have passed from the 500 Million USD investment commitment of India in the port; however, it is yet to be fulfilled, and therefore, this gap has encouraged China to get benefit from the opportunity.
China is not concerned about the survival of its ties with governments in Afghanistan, as it maintains relations with both Taliban and Afghan government; however, India is not assured in this regard.
In recent months, Beijing and Tehran work on a 25-year political-economic cooperation agreement, where China will invest 400 Billion USD in transportation, and energy sectors in Iran. Although nothing has been said around China’s participation in the Chabahar Port project of Iran in the details published about the aforesaid agreement; however, a number of Middle Eastern research centers have written that considering the strategic importance of Iran in the One Belt One Road project, Beijing would like to connect Gwadar and Chabahar as “sister ports”, which will truncate hands of India from the Chabahar.
China’s Growing Influence in Central Asia
Russia and China, in the past two decades, have proceeded taking a tactical understanding into account and have tolerated each other to prevent expansion of influence of a third power in Central Asia. During this time, china sought for economic and commercial opportunities in Central Asian Republics and has respected Russian cultural influence there. Inevitably, China and Russia have taken care of their relative joint security interests in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Leaders of Central Asian Republics are lost in managing Covid-19. Though, European countries have provided these countries with financial assistance in order to address the economic irregularities emerged from Coronavirus; however, the Central Asian countries, besides former financial problems, need basic projects and stable commerce in order to get out of current economic problems. Meeting these needs are out of capability of Russia, and Europe cannot help either.
Considering the constrained necessity of Central Asia, China has accelerated the series of its BRI in the region. The entire routes that Afghanistan has well-thought-out for commercial interaction with Central Asia, and through it, to Europe, including railway and land corridors, are contained within BRI.
Despite previous warnings, U.S. has worked on a series of new strategies in regards with participation of regional countries in these projects. the Establishment of Development Finance Corporation (DFC) is one of them. In his latest visit to Central Asia, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad had also brought the Director of DFC with him in order to provide the foreign ministers of the countries in the region with information on U.S. future transit and trade strategy in Central Asia. In his August 6 statement on the occasion of consultative Loya Jirga (Afghan-style Grand Council) in Afghanistan, U.S. Secretary of State, Michael R. Pompeo had clearly said that “U.S. is committed to improving regional economic ties and connectivity”, and thus, has established the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to fulfill these commitments.
Conclusion
While work on Aynak Copper Mine and Amu River Oil Basin projects, counted as China’s grand investment and big projects in Afghanistan, is fully stopped; China is yet to give up on these projects, because there is hope for withdrawal of U.S. from Afghanistan since 2014, and especially after the initiation of the peace process. like last 20 years, China does not want to enter as a military force into Afghanistan, but based on a proposal, China, if needed, is ready to send its troops to Afghanistan in the framework of international peacekeeping mission until the successful completion of the three phases of peace. Beijing has raised this issue with Taliban, and in view of the Beijing commercial-economic maneuvers around Afghanistan, China will be in possession of entire tools to control Afghanistan like every other country in the region, in case U.S. troops do not withdraw from Afghanistan completely. If another scenario is applied and U.S. forces continued their presence in the country, Afghanistan will encounter some hard choices concerning economic and commercial affairs due to economic-commercial encircle of China.