The Afghan war has got several foreign dimensions, but the only Afghan thing of this war is, ‘the killing of Afghans at the hands of Afghans’. We live in the era of globalization and the world has shaped itself like a village, thus the instability and insecurity of one country has direct and indirect impacts on the security, economic and political profile of other country.
Following the global war on terror in the wake of the 9/11 horrific attacks on US, the war has, unexpectedly, prolonged in Afghanistan, making it the longest ever war in US history. Nevertheless, its fate is yet to be determined.
The longest US War on Terror is still complicated and ambiguous. The destiny of war is still unknown. Hence, the US and its allies, besides fighting, intended to initiate peace negotiations with Taliban and put an end to the longest war of the United States of America.
US-Taliban Negotiations Series
To achieve the goal, US inaugurated the political office for Taliban in Qatar, in January of 2012, and thus begun efforts to initiate negotiations with Taliban. However the negotiations were faced with many ups and downs which resulted in the unproductive end of the negotiation process. The very first opposition to the initiation of the Qatar negotiations came from former President Hamid Karzai. At that time, Karzai harshly opposed talks with the Taliban to be in possession of an independent political office, and to raise their flag of Islamic Emirate in Doha, Qatar. This and other developments in the region resulted in fruitlessness of these negotiations; however, the Taliban office of Qatar remained opened. In February 2016, new efforts on peace negotiations with Taliban started through the mediation of Pakistan, China and United States; however, these negotiations got frozen after a US drone attack killing Taliban Supreme Leader, Mullah Mansur, in Baluchistan province of Pakistan, on his way back from Iran.
As the Afghan war protracted, and Taliban extended their ties with regional countries like Russia, China, Iran and Turkey, and the Taliban transformed into a proxy of different countries against Afghan government and United States, the US President Donald Trump postulated to revive negotiations with the Taliban.
After long discussions among US decision-makers and policy-makers, the negotiation channels reopened with the Taliban. At the beginning, Afghan government also played an important role in consensus on peace. However, after the US government appointed Zalmay Khalilzad for the negotiations, Taliban and Afghanistan neighbors understood that the US was serious about the talks at that time. Taliban presented the US with some conditions for negotiations, and one of them was sidelining Afghan government in these negotiations.
Instead of holding direct talks with the Taliban, the US has taken a series of actions that were important for Washington-Taliban peace-deal:
- For attaining the confidence of regional countries regarding peace, Zalmay Khalilzad visited almost all the regional countries and addressed concerns of the most countries that they had regarding the peace.
- Taliban became powerful politically on international and regional level.
- Taliban became under heavy pressure in the battlefield during peace negotiations. Looking back at the history of 20-year war against the Taliban, it is obvious that the group leadership and fighters suffered the most losses in 2019.
The US pressure on Taliban and providing the group with political protocol, allowed the first phase of peace agreement got signed, successfully, between the US and Taliban in Qatar on February 29, 2020. After the agreement, it was thought that everything would go as planned and US would be able to establish a new government with participation of Taliban in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, everything are not that easy. Hurdles towards the peace agreement are far more than was expected. In the agreement, itself, there are some articles whose implementation is difficult for the US, and also there are some articles that the Taliban do not have the power to realize them.
It has been six months to the agreement, but; neither the intra-Afghan negotiations has started yet nor the Taliban’s 5,000 prisoners have been released, and instead the war is gaining momentum with each passing day.
Meanwhile, the absence of the Afghan government in Peace deal was itself an issue which created many hurdles in the implementation of the peace agreement.
Based on the US-Taliban peace agreement, the following must have happened:
- US shall begin withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan, and the entire foreign forces shall leave Afghanistan within fourteen months.
- Prisoner swap process shall begin between Afghan government and Taliban
- Intra-Afghan negotiations shall initiate.
- The Taliban leadership shall be removed from the UN Blacklist by August.
- Taliban shall cut its ties with Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, and shall guarantee that Afghanistan soil will not be used against U.S. and its allies.
Some experts, however, believe that there are a number of annexes attached to the US-Taliban Peace Agreement, which describes pattern of future relations between U.S. and Taliban as well as the fate of foreign forces residing in Afghanistan. If these annexes are what it is said to be, then, they may not be counted as serious barriers against intra-Afghan talks.
Taliban talks with government’s team
The US-Taliban Peace deal was a great opportunity for Afghans, United States, Taliban and regional countries; however, the agreement is now faced with a number of hindrances, important of which are as follows:
Establishing the negotiating team was a difficult process for Afghan government. Lack of political consensus and absence of a unanimous standpoint made it a test-case for President Ghani to have immediate preparations for peace. Taliban was aware of the situation; however, the Afghan government and politicians agreed upon the coordination and formation of an inclusive team in response of mounting US pressure. Even with announcement of negotiation team by the Afghan government, the negotiations are yet to get started; still the Taliban insist that they enter into negotiations with Afghan government not as a government but as a group, and emphasizes that there should be political parties, elites, Ulama and political leaders included in the negotiations. By this, Taliban tries to weaken the Afghan government, and, then, to negotiate with an opposition group who could have political disparities, and as a consequence, Taliban will be able to exploit the divided opinions of the opposite side into its own favor. The Afghan government; however, did not want to sit at the negotiations table with Taliban in such perplexing conditions.
Afghan government was looking forward to seize the opportunity emerged from addressing the political turmoil created as a result of Presidential Elections, and to enter the negotiations from an inclusive powerful political position. Now, as the political impasse is broken, President Ghani’s electoral rival, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah has accepted the Chairmanship of Reconciliation High Council, and this council will be able to gather the separated state of affairs into one; however, the axis is also opposed by the Taliban. Following the President Ghani and Dr. Abdullah agreement, the spokesperson for Taliban Qatar Office, Sohail Shaheen tweeted that whatever going on in Kabul is the repetition of past failed experiences. Shaheen has considered the agreement and, indirectly, the Reconciliation Council as a barrier and, based on Doha Agreement, has called for completion of prisoner release process, and, then, initiation of intra-Afghan talks.
Prisoners Issue
Afghan government uses the release of Taliban prisoner as a pressure tool against the Taliban, which it has provoked the Taliban. In return for release of Taliban prisoners, Afghan government makes effort to reduce the violence or make the Taliban to agree to a ceasefire but Taliban, in response, has intensified the war in the different provinces of the country. Afghanistan National Directorate of Security (NDS) reports that the Taliban has launched 3,700 attacks after the agreement which indicates a remarkable increase in their raids in compare to last year.
Afghan government argues that releasing of five thousand Taliban prisoners – some of them were involved in most deadly terrorist attacks- is technically a difficult job, and, unfortunately, the technical aspect of the matter was not assessed during the peace agreement. Afghan government claims that the issue of prisoner release is a legal issue and it’s Servant Right (Haq Al Abd) and God Right (Haq Ullah) is an important matter. Furthermore, names of a number of prisoners who have been involved in huge bomb attacks in Kabul and other parts of the country in the list is a concerning issue. There are also some reports that a number of released prisoners have returned to the battlefield, and are actively engaged in fighting against the Afghan security forces.
Taliban argues that it has concluded agreement with U.S., and so Washington should put pressure on Afghan government to release its prisoners. The group in a statement blamed the Afghan government for prolonging the violence and said if the ANDSF increases the attacks they should not be blamed for that.
Taliban Ties with Other Terrorists organizations
Another important issue at the peace agreement is that the Taliban shall cut its ties with international terrorist groups.
Taliban are yet to cut their ties with Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Based on Afghan government claims, Taliban still maintain close relations with and support Al Qaeda, terrorist groups of Central Asia and ISIS (Daseh). The Taliban, however, publically renounced its associations with ISIS.
Considering the relationships among terrorist and ideological groups, it will not be easy for Taliban to cut its ties with Al Qaeda, because Taliban maintains ideological and even affectious relations with Al Qaeda. Especially, the new generation of Taliban has emerged as a result of relationships between members of Taliban group and members of Al Qaeda network. They are family now, and, so, it is hard for them to become separated. /p>
Renunciation of Taliban ties with global terrorist groups will be a serious matter between US and Taliban after success of intra-Afghan negotiations.
Fate of Intra-Afghan Negotiations
For now, peace with Taliban is the priority for US in Afghanistan, and thus the country is ready to put pressure on every party in order for the agreement to become succeeded. America puts pressure on both sides to initiate negotiations as soon as possible. US will have an important role in governing the demands of both sides during negotiations. /p>
The issue which might make barriers in front of intra-Afghan negotiations are as follows:
- Lack of confidence on each other in all parties involved.
- Differences in views and goals of groups and persons involved in the decisive phase of peace (intra-Afghan talks), and their relations with different countries make the negotiations complicated and controversial. Neither the Taliban party not the government party has got unite position around the future Afghan political fate. Type of system, political participation, foreign policy and many more are the issues that will be seriously discussed during the intra-Afghan negotiations.
- Women’s role in political and other arenas.
- Fate of Afghan security forces and Taliban fighters.
Conclusion
Afghans are hopeful for the on-going time-consuming and complicated peace process; however, the disquieting issue is that the US-Taliban agreement became signed in absence of close coordination with Afghanistan government as well as the Afghan political leaders. Therefore, it is thought and feared that the US and Taliban may have agreed on some topics in secret that could create another headache for Afghanistan.
For success of the agreement, US should have included Afghan government in negotiations from the very beginning, and the result of the trilateral negotiations could be potential permanent ceasefire or permanent peace today.
Another prodigious barrier toward these negotiations is inopportune conceit of Taliban, the buoyancy that Taliban could be an alternative to current government in Afghanistan, and that the United States also would like the Taliban to seize power in the country.
Moreover, some political figures did not ruminate Afghanistan national interests and act vengefully against the government policies; posed in different meetings with Taliban, and for that reason, such meetings escalated the expectations of the Taliban.
Afghan government stalwart position around the negotiations was the issue that did disservice the US-Afghan ties, and still, the atmosphere of cynicism is governed between both strategic allies.
Following the end of the electoral turmoil, it is likely that the Afghan government will put a stop to its current weakened position with regards to peace, and the government positon during negotiations with Taliban will be dominant and unequivocal which will make the Taliban to become under pressure.
Recent developments indicate that Afghans have put a few steps forward in regards with peace, and thus, will achieve lasting peace very soon.