Following the ink of US-Taliban peace agreement, intra-Afghan negotiations is the most important and decisive stage.
A large proportion of the US-Taliban agreement and US-Afghanistan declaration is focused on the talks between Taliban and Afghan government (intra-Afghan negotiations).However, whether the talks (associated with the political agreement) will be likely in accordance with the forecasts of the agreement and the declaration in the time given?
In its joint declaration with US, the Afghan government delineates the negotiations with Taliban in a framework of the delegation of the Islamic Republic and says, the political agreement will be reached as a result of talks between Taliban and the inclusive delegation of the Afghan government. Although, the terms of intra-Afghan dialogue and intra-Afghan negotiations are used for the talks in the US-Taliban agreement, where both of them vary from each other and divide talks into two stages.
Gulf on Negotiations Type
There is already a difference between Taliban and the government regarding the type of the negotiations.
Taliban like better to hold talks with various groups and political leaders instead of negotiations with the government. The friction over nature of negotiations between political powers in Kabul retains their position. It is easy for them to conclude a deal with groups and political-ethnic leaders instead of negotiating with a single address. Nonetheless, Afghan government wants the political leaders and parties to enter into negotiations under its umbrella, instead of making individual efforts. Afghan government nullifies the term of intra-Afghan negotiations. From one hand, such kind of negotiations seize the initiative from government, and from other hand, take it into isolation inside the country and abroad.
Prior to the Doha development, Waheed Omar, Senior Advisor to President Ghani on public and strategic relations, told a meeting on the peace process that they have problem with the term of intra-Afghan; and, as the war is between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, so the negotiation should also be between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban.
Taliban splits the process of talks into two stages of “Dialogue and Negotiations”. Taking the current political situation in Kabul into consideration, intra-Afghan dialogue allows the Taliban to create a favorable and coordinated environment with various Afghan parties for the upcoming stages. The environment could help them to have an upper hand in the stage of intra-Afghan negotiations. The Moscow and Doha intra-Afghan dialogue meetings were useful experiences from them in this regard. Afghan government has got no good reminiscences of these meetings.
Ceasefire Following ‘Significant Reduction’ in Afghanistan Violence
Another imperative part of the negotiations is truce. Afghan government accentuates the ceasefire in the talks more than every other thing.
On March 1, a day after the ink of US-Taliban agreement, President Ghani told a press conference that he hopes the significant reduction in Afghanistan violence will be turned into a ceasefire. Yet, the Taliban considers the ceasefire as an item on the agenda of the intra-Afghan negotiations. The US-Taliban signed agreement states that ceasefire will be announced along with the completion and agreement over the future political roadmap of Afghanistan
Taliban will not make an indisputable ceasefire until the group is not assured of full withdrawal of US forces as well as it is not reached a political agreement. The group will not fight the foreign forces only. The obligations of the Taliban apply in areas under their control. Perhaps, the Taliban will attempt to bring much more areas under their control in a period of 14 months where Taliban and US forces are committed not to carry out attacks against each other, and thus, will appear from a powerful position in the negotiations table. In this period, the foreign forces will not support the Afghan forces militarily.
The US-Afghanistan declaration states that both sides reaffirms their ongoing commitment to prevent any global terrorist groups or individuals, including al-Qaida and ISIS-K to threaten the security of the United States, its allies and other countries. Here, the term global Terrorists are used which does not encompass the Taliban. The joint declaration has limited the commitments regarding support for the Afghan security forces to enhance the ability of Afghan security forces to deter and respond to internal and external threats, consistent with its commitments under existing security agreements between the two governments. Meaning that, the US will not meddle in conflict between Taliban and Afghan government.
The US-Taliban agreement enshrines the withdrawal of entire forces; however, it does not mention the intelligence personal that the US President has frequently stressed that they will remain in Afghanistan.
Discharge of Five Thousands Prisoners
Discharge of prisoners whose vast majority is imprisoned in Afghan prisons is another challenge at the outset of implementation of the agreement and initiation of the negotiations. Afghan government will seek to obtain privilege from US and Taliban when it comes to discharge of the jailbirds.
The US-Taliban agreement states that up to five thousand (5,000) prisoners of the Taliban prisoners by March 10, 2020, the first day of intra-Afghan negotiations. The relevant sides have the goal of releasing all the remaining prisoners over the course of the subsequent three months. But, one day after the signing of the agreement, President Ghani said that they are not agreed with US in regards with release of the Taliban prisoners, because it is the authority of Afghan government and the issue will be discussed during the negotiations.
Bearing in mind the discharge of Anas Haqqani, which was a surprise for the Afghan government, it could be foreseen that, despite the delay and hamper, the Taliban prisoners will be released. Of course, the released Taliban prisoners will be committed to the responsibilities mentioned in the agreement so that they will not pose a threat to the security of the United States. But, if any of the prisoners joined another group, i.e, ISIS or Al Qaeda, it, then, would create a headache for Taliban.
The entire obligations made in the US-Taliban “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” are conditioned to the commitments of both sides, specifically the Taliban, as inability to full any promise by the group will provide the US with opportunity to remain in Afghanistan.
Considering the Qatar multi-stage talks between both parties, it could be projected that holding intra-Afghan negotiations and reaching a political agreement, where the withdrawal of US forces is also conditioned, will take a longer time.
